editor’s note: i found the time posted of trump’s tweet intriguing…
***
With Trump’s long anticipated announcement on the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, i.e., the Iran Nuclear Deal, now set at 2pm on Tuesday, the world is scrambling to handicap the odds that Trump i) lets the deal live, and ii) permits Iran to continue exporting as much as 1mmbpd.
Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrumpI will be announcing my decision on the Iran Deal tomorrow from the White House at 2:00pm.
That said, barring some last minute miracle, if the late afternoon conjecture by the NYT is accurate, and following news over the weekend that Obama’s Secretary of State had secretly been engaging in shadow diplomacy to preserve the JCPOA, in less than 24 hours the US will no longer be a signatory to the Iran deal, just as Trump had promised during his presidential campaign.
According to NYT sources, “diplomats who were familiar with the negotiations said Mr. Trump appeared inclined to scrap the deal and reimpose sanctions on Iran that were suspended in an accord reached in Vienna in July 2015.”
As Bloomberg adds, quoting an unnamed European diplomat, there may be a chance President Trump’s will decide to keep the U.S. in the existing Iran nuclear deal, but it’s only a very small chance. The diplomat also said that “unless something changes, it’s pretty obvious Trump probably won’t waive sanctions” as the Trump administration seems to seek entirely new agreement, in contrast to European allies who’ve sought to build on existing deal.
Even Iran, despite warning the US will suffer from “historic regret” if it withdraws from the Nuclear Deal, has reportedly made back up plans for just that contingency.
And yet, following a full-court press by European heads of state, most notably Macron and Merkel, both of whom have been purchasing Iranian crude at below-market prices for the past 3 years and are eager to continue the Iran real, it is distinctly possible that in announcing the scrapping of the deal, Trump will provide for some continuity for the rest of the world so that i) Iran is not blacklisted by SWIFT again and ii) Iran oil exports can continue, to wit:
144,000
Yup!